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Capital
demands clarity.

Authored asset analysis to one standard: a thesis, a price and a quarter, and what would prove us wrong. Timestamped in the open. Booked in a ledger that never forgets a miss.

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OXIG3,100p · band 3,000–3,200pEnd of Q4 2027Open INTC$85 · band $80–90End of Q4 2027Open IBM$300 · band $290–310End of Q4 2027Open GFS$55 · band $52–58End of Q4 2027Open BTC$60,000 · band $57–63kEnd of Q1 2027Open ETH$1,500–1,700End of Q1 2027Open GRAM$0.80End of Q1 2027Open SOL$105–120 reclaim · $88–90 firstQ4 2026 – Q1 2027Open AKTRangebound $0.50–0.90, lower halfQ3–Q4 2026Open ONDORangebound $0.36–0.47Q3–Q4 2026Invalidated TAO$300, then $360–375Q3–Q4 2026Open NEAR$2.5+ · nothing counts until $1.72 holdsQ3–Q4 2026Played out AAVEBase $100–130 · upside ~$154Event-drivenPlayed out HYPEThe 8× valuation gap narrowsEvent-drivenPlayed out
0
Theses on the record
Every one with a price, a quarter and a kill condition
0
Played out
Booked when the stated target held
0
Invalidated
Booked against us, in the open, with the reasoning
0
Days on the record
Since 12 May 2026 · timestamped on Telegram
01 · The call

A price and a quarter.
In every piece.

No "looks interesting". Each thesis names a level, a horizon and the single condition that closes it against us, and draws them on one line next to the live price. If we are wrong, you will see it before we do.

How we analyze →
Our view
3,100p · band 3,000–3,200p
By
End of Q4 2027
Closed against us by
Weekly close below 2,000p
Conviction
~60%
Now
—
The call on a linePublished 2,566pNowTarget 3,000p–3,200pInvalidation 2,000p
2,000p
2,566p
3,000p
3,200p
02 · The record

Nothing is edited.
Nothing disappears.

Outcomes are appended below each piece as dated entries: played out, invalidated, revised. The misses stay next to the hits, with the paragraph on where the reasoning failed. No win-rate, no trophy wall.

Open the ledger →
2026-11-11OXIGOxford Instruments: the quantum label is gone. The order book isn't.Open 2026-11-09INTCIntel: the worst month ever, and the fab is finally workingOpen 2026-05-26ONDOONDO: a sector leader at an outsider's priceInvalidated 2026-05-17NEARNEAR: the silence before the reshardingPlayed out
03 · The timestamp

Published in the open,
on a clock we don't control.

Every piece is announced in the Telegram channel the moment it goes live, and links back to that post. The time is fixed on a platform we cannot edit. Check the claim against the post, not against our word.

t.me/byTinkf →
t.me/byTinkfPublished · 11 Nov 2026
Latest analysis
All analysis →
OXIGOpen

Oxford Instruments: the quantum label is gone. The order book isn't.

Our view3,100p · band 3,000–3,200p · End of Q4 2027

7d—24h

The dilution refrigerators were sold to Quantum Design in January; quantum is now under 9% of revenue. What remains makes the etch and deposition tools under the indium-phosphide lasers in AI data-centre optics. First-half orders rose 44%, the growth division's 126%, the book runs into 2028, and the 10 November results confirmed it while the shares closed flat, 23% off the June high. We lean to 3,100p by the end of Q4 2027. Conviction ~60%.

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INTCOpen

Intel: the worst month ever, and the fab is finally working

Our view$85 · band $80–90 · End of Q4 2027

7d—24h

October took 45% off Intel on a weak PC guide. Underneath: data-centre revenue +78% at a 42% margin and sold out, 18A at industry-standard yield, $54B of cash funded by holders who paid $95, $23 and $20 a share. We lean to $85 by the end of Q4 2027. Conviction ~55%.

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IBMOpen

IBM: the quantum option is priced at zero

Our view$300 · band $290–310 · End of Q4 2027

7d—24h

After a 25% one-day crash in July, IBM trades at 18.7x forward earnings with a 6.3% free-cash-flow yield, software growing 9% on 35% margins, and a quantum program with a foundry, a factory and a 2029 date that HSBC's sum-of-the-parts values at zero. We lean to $300 by the end of Q4 2027. Conviction ~60%.

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GFSOpen

GlobalFoundries: the fab that someone else pays for

Our view$55 · band $52–58 · End of Q4 2027

7d—24h

GF fell 58% from its May high and 15% in two days on a $4B 2027 capex plan. Japan is funding up to $21B of Malta fabs GF will operate, Washington reallocated $955M to photonics, customers prepay a third. Photonics is sold out through 2027 at a record 31.4% margin. We lean to $55 by the end of Q4 2027. Conviction ~55%.

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BTCOpen

Bitcoin: everyone's line is at $75,000

Our view$60,000 · band $57–63k · End of Q1 2027

7d—24h

Thirteen months into the drawdown, the short-term-holder cost basis, Strategy's average cost and December's max pain sit within $600 of each other at $75k. With the Fed hiking, ETF flows negative and the Nasdaq correcting, we lean to $60,000 by the end of Q1 2027. Conviction ~60%.

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ETHOpen

Ethereum: everything settles here, nothing pays here

Our view$1,500–1,700 · End of Q1 2027

7d—24h

Ethereum holds 54% of DeFi and half of all stablecoins, and earned $6M in fees last month, less than Tron. The fee engine was routed to the rollups by design, the ETF buyer left and the roadmap keeps slipping. We lean to $1,500–1,700 by the end of Q1 2027, a new cycle low against Bitcoin. Conviction ~60%.

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Principle

"A publication is worth exactly what its arguments are worth."

We deliberately don't publish a "win rate" or trophy trade cards without context — that is the language of those with nothing substantive to say. In their place, a full analysis: why this asset, what argues for and against it, and the conditions under which the publication's view changes.

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